Sunday, August 14, 2011

Turkey In the Straw

So, Michelle Bachmann has won the Iowa Straw Poll. What does this mean for the country?

She's gotten more coverage in the last few weeks than she could've hoped for. On the basis of his showing in the straw poll, Tim Pawlenty dropped out of the race. Our submissive media has been trumpeting this particular "first American caucus" as if it were the most important indicator of the election.

Well, I think it's important to note one little detail about the history of this particular poll.

The Ames Straw Pole has been held a total of six times (in 1979, and then in 1987, 1995, 1999, 2007 and now in 2011). In all that time, it correctly predicted the upcoming president of the United States once. In real terms, that is an accuracy rate of 17%.

It's roughly as accurate as throwing a handful of corn over a list of candidates, and letting the chicken choose the winner.

So the results mean less than nothing, and we can expect to see the GOP continue to do what they've always done.

That, my friends, is the importance to the American political landscape of the Ames Straw Poll.


Nance said...

Yeah, that one doesn't worry me. But the SC "First In The South" Primary will get my attention. Since its inception in 1980, this primary has called both the Democratic and Republican national primary winners consistently.

It's an open primary, which means that I, a registered Democrat, can vote in either the Republican or Democratic primary. Unless the Second Coming occurs and JC decides that politics is the way to make his mark this time, I'll be voting for Mr. Obama in the election, which means I'm free to vote across party lines in the primary. I'm voting for the dumbest candidate the GOP has on offer.

It's so hard to choose.

Nice wildlife graphic.

Lilli said...

Well said. And thank you for reminding us of how accurate this poll truly is. I especially like the "let the chickens pick the winner" analogy.